000
FZPN03 KNHC 241519
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 26.

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.6N 106.2W 946 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 24
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT
GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 NM SW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 36 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.3N 109.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM 
SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.6N 112.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 105 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 10 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 18.0N 115.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.0N 116.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 21.5N 116.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 150 
NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
WITHIN 300 NM SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 
150 NM...EXCEPT 225 NM SE QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 
180 NM...EXCEPT 270 NM NE QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER.

.FROM 23N TO 28N E OF 115W TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NW TO N 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 23N TO 30N E OF 120W TO W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 17N 
E OF 125W...EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE...WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN CONFUSED SWELL.   
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N E OF 120W TO W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE 
N OF 17N E OF 125W...EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE...WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN CONFUSED SWELL. 

.WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N95W TO 12N96W...INCLUDING 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT. S OF 04N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 107W AND 129W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. S OF 
LINE 04N124W TO 00N101W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN 
MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 119W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT MEANDERING JUST NW OF AREA. N OF 
29N W OF 135W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24...

HURRICANE HILARY...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N AND 45 NM S OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN AND ENTERS 
EPAC WATERS NEAR 09N84W TO 10N98W WHERE IT TERMINATES...THEN 
RESUMES W OF HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 15N112W TO 12N125W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 
130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 04N E OF 85W TO 
THE COAST OF PANAMA. 

$$
.FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.