000
FZPN03 KNHC 220301
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC THU SEP 22 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 24.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 14.4N 97.2W 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 
22 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 45 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 15.2N 99.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM IN NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN SE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 
27 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.5N 103.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 
90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 36 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 18.0N 107.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 18.5N 110.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.0N 113.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 114W 
S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W SW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 270 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W SW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.TROUGH FROM 13N137W TO 08N139W. FROM 10N TO 13N W OF TROUGH   
NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 14N139W TO 10N141W. FROM 10N TO 
13N W OF TROUGH NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH W OF AREA. 

.NW OF LINE FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N121W TO 16N140W WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE 27N114W TO 08N140W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC THU SEP 22...

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AT 08N78W TO EL 
SALVADOR AT 13N88W. THERE IS A BREAK NEAR T.S. HILARY. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AGAIN AT 11N109W TO 13N120W TO A 1011 MB 
LOW NEAR 10N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
08N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W DUE TO 
HILARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 
105W AND 110W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 137W AND 141W.       

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.