000
FZPN03 KNHC 212144
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC WED SEP 21 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI SEP 23.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 14.0N 96.6W 1003 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 
21 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE 
...45 NM NE QUADRANT AND 35 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM 
SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 14.9N 98.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM IN NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN SE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 
21 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.2N 102.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 
90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.4N 106.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 18.5N 109.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.0N 112.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 114W 
S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 118W SW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 270 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W SW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.TROUGH FROM 13N137W TO 09N138W. FROM 10N TO 13N W OF TROUGH   
NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 13N139W TO 10N140W. FROM 10N TO 
13N W OF TROUGH NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH W OF AREA. 

.NW OF LINE FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N124W TO 10N140W WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE 28N115W TO 10N140W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2130 UTC WED SEP 21...

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AT 08N78W TO 09N83W 
TO 12N90W. THERE IS A BREAK NEAR T.S. HILARY. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BEGINS AGAIN AT 11N104W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N116W TO ANOTHER 
1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N129W TO 11N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 
17N BETWEEN 92W AND 107W DUE TO HILARY. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W.      

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.