000
FZPN03 KNHC 161545
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 18.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 12.3N 134.5W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC
AUG 16 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF
CENTER.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 12.5N 137.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 13.2N 139.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 14.2N 143.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 14.5N 147.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 15.0N 
151.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 12 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM NW AND WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.LOW PRES 13.5N98W 1006 MB MOVING W-NW 12 KT. WITHIN 210 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 
15N103W 1004 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 14 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 
17N109W 1002 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 
14N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.LOW PRES 12N110.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 13.5N114W 1007 MB. FROM 120 TO 270 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. FROM 07N TO 
12N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN 
PARAGRAPH ABOVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AT 17N109W.

.ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 
115W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
 
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AS OF 1500 UTC TUE AUG 16...
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
75 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.

.LOW PRES 13.5N98W...ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG N OF 12N TO MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 95W AND 103W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 11N73W TO 09N86W TO LOW PRES 
13.5N98W TO LOW PRES 12N110.5W TO 11N116W TO 13N128W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
95W AND BETWEEN 103W AND 123W.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.