000
FZPN03 KNHC 291539
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE MAY 29
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED MAY 30
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU MAY 31

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.6N 114.2W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC MAY 
29 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 40 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 50 NM OF 
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.4N 115.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM 
OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.5N 117.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
SEAS TO 20 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.5N 119.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.5N 120.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.5N 121.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.LOW PRES 14N98W 1009 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR  
14N98W 1008 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 
TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
14N98W 1007 MB. WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 
TO 30 KT SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.  

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...ELSEWHERE S OF 14N BETWEEN 93W 
AND 123W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT WITH SW SWELL. S OF 
9N E OF 86W SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...S OF 13S 
BETWEEN 95W AND 125W S T0 SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT WITH SW 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...S OF 10S 
BETWEEN 84W AND 106W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 11 FT. 
ELSEWHERE S OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC TUE MAY 29...
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
E SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE.  

LOW PRES 14N98W...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120NM S 
SEMICIRCLE.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...11N84W 15N93W 8N111W 8N126W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W 
AND 91W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 132W.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH