000
FZPN03 KNHC 161525
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU NOV 16 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU NOV 16
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI NOV 17
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT NOV 18

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.9N 103.0W 975 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV 16
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS
105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER.  SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 14.5N 103.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS 
TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 16.5N 105.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 80 NM OF 
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 21 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 18.5N 106.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 20.0N 107.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 21.5N 109.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

...GALE WARNING...
.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT SEAS BUILDING 10 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94.5W 
13N97W N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.  
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS BELOW GALE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 270 NM SE QUADRANT SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS WITHIN 210 
NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS WITHIN 240 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 16N94.5W 
12N95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 90 NM OF 
LINE 16N94.5W 12N99W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N94.5W 13N97W N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W N TO NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT SEAS TO 9 FT.

.N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W N WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W S TO 
SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W S TO 
SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 1515 UTC THU NOV 16...
HURRICANE SERGIO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM W AND 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE 
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N84W 7N95W 13N100W 9N120W
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-75 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.

FORECASTER COBB
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH