000
FZPN03 KNHC 160308
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC THU NOV 16 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU NOV 16
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI NOV 17
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT NOV 18

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.3N 103.2W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC NOV 16
MOVING ENE OR 060 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT 
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 13.7N 103.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS 
TO 24 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 15.9N 104.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SEAS TO 21 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 18.0N 106.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 19.5N 107.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 21.0N 109.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

...GALE WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS BELOW GALE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM SE QUADRANT 
AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
270 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
300 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.FROM 5N TO 22N W OF 127W AND N OF 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 112W NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 90W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 92W S TO 
SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 116W AND 92W 
SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SW AND N SWELL.

.09 HOUR FORECAST GULF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS TO 9 
FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE 16N94.5W 12N95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE 16N94.5W 11N96W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94.5W 13N97W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT 
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 16N94.5W 9N101W 
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC THU NOV 16...
HURRICANE SERGIO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM N AND WITHIN 60 
NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N102W 10N103W. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 10N84W 9N92W 12N103W 
12N115W 6N122W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N81W 6N93W AND LINE 11N104W 9N110W 
8N137W. 

FORECASTER NELSON
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH