000
FZPN03 KNHC 152141
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC WED NOV 15 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED NOV 15
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU NOV 16
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV 17

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.0N 103.6W 965 MB AT 2100 UTC NOV 15
MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 
115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.8N 103.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS 
TO 27 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 15.0N 104.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS 
TO 25 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 16.5N 105.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 18.0N 106.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 20.0N 107.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

...GALE WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94.5W 
13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 
40 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM SE QUADRANT 
AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
270 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
360 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.FROM 5N TO 20N W OF 130W AND N OF 5N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. N OF 12N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 112W N WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W NW TO N WINDS 20 KT SEAS 
8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF 10N E OF 120W SLY WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 95W SW WINDS TO 20 
KT SEAS TO 8 FT.

.15 HOUR FORECAST GULF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS TO 9 
FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE 16N94.5W 12N95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS... WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LINE 16N94.5W 11N96W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT.
.48 FORECAST FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 
NM OF LINE 16N94.5W 12N99W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC WED NOV 15...
HURRICANE SERGIO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM N AND WITHIN 90 
NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N102W 9N104W. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 10N84W 9N93W 13N103W 
12N116W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N77W 8N85W 5N90W 11N103W 7N130W 
8N140W. 

FORECASTER NELSON
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH