000
FZPN03 KNHC 221511
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 22
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 23
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 24

.WARNINGS
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 16.3N 109.1W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
22 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO XX FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 18.0N 110.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 19.9N 110.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 22.2N 110.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISSIPATING INLAND
NEAR 26.0N 107.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM  
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...LITTLE CHANGE.

.S OF 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 112W WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.

.FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 125W NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT 
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 132W NE WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN W SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 24N W OF 132W NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW 
SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 124W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 132W NE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 9 TO 12 
FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF 27W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 
TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SUN OCT 22...
TROPICAL STORM PAUL...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
OF CENTER.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...DISCONTINUOUS AXIS 11N86W 
18N102W. AXIS CONTINUES 9N108W 7N114W 11N137W 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH