000
FZPN03 KNHC 220322
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN OCT 22
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 23
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 24

.WARNINGS
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 15.9N 108.0W 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 
22 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 16.8N 110.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE 
AND 75 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 19.9N 110.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 
28 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 24.5N 108.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL INLAND DISSIPATING 
NEAR 29.0N 105.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 150 NM 
SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...LITTLE 
CHANGE.

.S OF 8N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W S WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 9N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W S WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 
120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 132W NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT 
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 135W NE WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 24N W OF 127W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT IN W TO 
NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N W OF 134W NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF 122W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N W OF 131W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 9 
TO 13 FT IN N SWELL. ELSEWHERE NW OF LINE 30N128W 24N140W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22...
TROPICAL STORM PAUL...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE CENTER.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...12N86W 16N100W 8N110W 12N125W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 99W AND 
107W.

FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH