000
FZPN03 KNHC 211540
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 21
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 22
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 23

.WARNINGS
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 16.0N 106.9W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
21 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 16.2N 109.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 17.5N 111.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 21.0N 110.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL INLAND NEAR 26.0N
107.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 
120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM E AND 
150 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS TO 10 FT.

.S OF 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT. 
S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.N OF 25N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 20N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 
TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N W OF 125W NE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 10 TO 12 FT 
IN NE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SAT OCT 21...
TROPICAL STORM PAUL...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ACTIVE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...DISCONTINUOUS AXIS 12N87W 15N95W. 
AXIS CONTINUES 8N101W 8N113W 10N126W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS ALONG CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 101W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 137W.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH