000
FZPN03 KNHC 160946
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 16
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 17
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUL 18

.WARNINGS
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.9N 120.5W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC
JUL 16 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 125
NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 20.5N 124.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 20.5N 127.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST...REMNANT LOW DISSIPATED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 
NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM
N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 60 NM OF
OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT.

.LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF BUD...NEAR 22N136.5W 1009 MB MOVING W 15 
KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF BUD...MOVED W OF AREA.
FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 137W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
E SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.  

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N105W 1009 MB MOVING W 13 KT. WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LOW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
12N108W 1006 MB. WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NW 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N113W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT.

.N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W N TO NE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 131W N TO NE WINDS
TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W N TO NE WINDS
TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.

.FROM 9N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE  
WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 120 NM FROM COAST
 TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 120 N TO NE WINDS 
20 KT SEAS 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0915 UTC SUN JUL 16...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LOW PRES NEAR 12N105W...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS
OF CENTER...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N108W 
15N106W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N102W 16N97W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF
15N94W.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N78W 9N85W 11N97W 10N110W
10N115W 15N120W THEN RESUMES AT 15N125W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ E OF 80W...AND WITHIN 180 NM
S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 113W 
AND 116W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH