000
FZPN03 KNHC 150320
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUL 15
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUL 16
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUL 17

.WARNINGS
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 18.9N 115.4W 984 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 15 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT 
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 75 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...200 NM NE QUADRANT AND 125 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 24 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.2N 116.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.5N 118.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH 
SEAS TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 19.5N 
122.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT 
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE.
.72 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW CARLOTTA NEAR 19.5N 124.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW CARLOTTA NEAR 19.5N 127.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW CARLOTTA NEAR 19.5N 130.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM BUD NEAR 20.1N 130.0W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 15 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE... 
100 NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD NEAR 20.2N 131.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW BUD NEAR 20.4N 134.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW BUD NEAR 20.5N 139.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW BUD NEAR 20.5N 145.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN 
180 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN 
150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 NM N AND 120 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 
NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. FROM 3N 
TO 9N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT. 
FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W E WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING LOW 11N104W 1007 MB. FROM 3N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 112W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN S 
SWELL. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 13N110W 1006 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND 420 
NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.FROM 9N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 
TO E WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC SAT JUL 15...
HURRICANE CARLOTTA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM SW 
AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE IN SPIRAL BANDS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT.

TROPICAL STORM BUD...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...9N80W 8N90W 8N100W 12N108W 
THEN 15N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
300 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 110W.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH