000
FZPN03 KNHC 131517
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 13
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 14
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 15

.WARNINGS
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE BUD NEAR 17.9N 122.0W 962 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 13 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT 
GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
250 NM E SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SW QUADRANT AND 200 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BUD NEAR 20.1N 127.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 65 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 65 NM NW 
QUADRANT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
SEAS TO 30 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BUD NEAR 21.5N 132.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 25 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 130 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH 
SEAS TO 22 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW BUD NEAR 22.0N 138.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.0N 142.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.5N 146.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 17.3N 110.4W 984 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 13 
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT 
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 105 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...200 NM NE QUADRANT AND 125 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 28 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 18.0N 114.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 100 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 220 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH 
SEAS TO 26 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 18.2N 118.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 100 NM NE QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 18.5N 121.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.0N 123.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 20.0N 
126.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 420 NM S AND 200 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 3N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
3N TO 14N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN
300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA ...WITHIN 360 NM 
OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.FROM 9N TO 12N E OF 92W E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 91W AND 105W S TO SW 
WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W S TO SW
WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 12N94W 7N95W. WITHIN 120 NM E OF TROUGH
E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 60 NM W OF TROUGH
NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 9N103W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM
N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC THU JUL 13...
HURRICANE BUD...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM SE SEMICIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

HURRICANE CARLOTTA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT TO 90 NM SE QUADRANT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...5N76W 11N95W 10N105W.  
THEN CONTINUING FROM 16N116W 5N135W 6N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 116W TO 
124W.

$$
FORECASTER LL
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH