000
FZNT02 KNHC 052154
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC MON JUL 5 2021

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON JUL 5.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE JUL  6.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED JUL  7.

.WARNINGS.

...CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELSA NEAR 22.7N 81.9W 1008 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 05
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 10 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N81W TO 23N82W TO 24N81W TO 23N79W TO 
22N80W TO 20N81W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELSA NEAR 26.1N 83.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 
NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 26N81W TO 
24N82W TO 26N85W TO 28N84W TO 28N83W TO 26N81W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELSA INLAND NEAR 30.6N 83.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW 
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 29N83W TO 29N84W TO 30N85W TO 30N84W 
TO 29N83W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.60 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELSA INLAND NEAR 32.8N 
81.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELSA INLAND NEAR 35.5N 
78.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL ELSA NEAR 41.5N 
69.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL ELSA NEAR 49.0N 
56.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATL WITHIN 30.5N70W TO 30.5N71W TO 30.5N72W TO 31N73W TO
31N69.5W TO 30.5N70W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN S SWELL. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 12N72W TO 13N75W TO 14N76W TO 15N74W TO 14N73W
TO 12N72W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 12N71W TO 11N78W TO 14N78W TO 14N77W TO
14N72W TO 12N71W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 13N72W TO 10N77W TO 12N80W TO 15N80W TO
17N72W TO 13N72W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.CARIBBEAN 30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 17N85W TO 16N85W TO 17N87W TO
18N86W TO 18N85W TO 17N85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS... E
TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AREINHART. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.