000
FZNT02 KNHC 021610
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI JUL 2 2021

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 2.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL  3.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL  4.

.WARNINGS.

...CARIBBEAN HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ELSA NEAR 13.4N 61.2W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 02
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 25 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...120 
NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N55W TO 11N58W TO 11N61W TO
19N60W TO 16N55W TO 14N55W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 13N52W TO 10N56W TO 13N62W TO 19N61W TO
17N53W TO 13N52W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELSA NEAR 16.3N 69.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
210 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND
120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N68W 
TO 15N70W TO 16N71W TO 18N70W TO 18N68W TO 16N68W...INCLUDING THE
MONA PASSAGE...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 13N66W TO 16N71W TO 21N73W TO 21N61W TO 13N66W E TO 
SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELSA NEAR 19.3N 76.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 
90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N75W TO
19N78W TO 21N77W TO 22N75W TO 21N74W TO 19N75W...INCLUDING THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELSA INLAND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 
22.1N 80.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELSA OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 26.0N 82.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 
KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELSA JUST INLAND NEAR 30.6N 
81.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 21N70W TO 20N73W TO 21N71W TO 
21N70W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS TO MERGE INTO THOSE DESCRIBED
ABOVE.

.ATLC 15 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N75W TO 30N77W TO 31N78W 
TO 31N73W TO 30N75W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N71W TO 29N74W TO 30N76W TO 31N76W TO
31N70W TO 30N71W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT JUST NW OF AREA. WITHIN 30N69W TO 
30N71W TO 31N71W TO 31N66W TO 30N69W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN SE SWELL.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 16N70W TO 15N70W TO 16N74W TO 19N76W TO 18N71W
TO 16N70W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 17N74W TO 17N76W TO 18N76W TO 18N74W TO
17N74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN E SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.