000
FZNT02 KNHC 171615
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU OCT 17 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 19.

.WARNINGS.

...GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN NEAR 22.4N 95.7W 1007 MB AT 
1500 UTC OCT 17 MOVING N OR 355 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 90 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. FROM 26N TO 27.5N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN NEAR 23.7N 
94.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. WITHIN 60 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
240 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN NEAR 25.8N 
91.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 0 
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM SE AND 60 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 29N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN INLAND 
NEAR 30.9N 85.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE 
QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 0 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF LINE FROM 25N85W TO 29N88W 
TO 30N87W WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF LINE FROM 22N85W TO 
30N88W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA E 
OF LINE FROM 23N87W TO 28N92W TO 30N89W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 35.5N 
77.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 37.5N 
70.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SIXTEEN NEAR 
38.0N 66.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N71W TO 28N77W TO 26.5N80W. N OF 30N E 
OF FRONT TO 66W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. N OF 30N AND 
W OF FRONT TO 74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO 27N76W TO 26.5N80W. 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 27N72W TO 
27N77W...THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 26.5N80W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO 27N69W TO 
26N73W...THEN WARM FRONT TO 28N81W. N OF 30N WITHIN 150 NM E OF 
FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 27N65W TO 
25N71W...THEN WARM FRONT TO 29N81W. N OF 29.5N WITHIN 420 NM E 
OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 20N TO 23N E OF 37W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT 
IN N TO NE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.ATLC 30 HOUR FORECAST E OF LINE FROM 23N35W TO 28N38W TO 29N35W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 23N TO 28N E OF 38W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.

.CARIBBEAN 18 HOUR FORECAST S OF 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 
87W...INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.