000
FZNT02 KNHC 161611
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC THU OCT 16 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING... 
.HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 26.1N 68.6W 940 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 16
MOVING N OR 05 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS
150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT.SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 300 NM NE QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM NE AND 210 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 63W AND 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 29.9N 66.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM N AND 135 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 
37 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 
70W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N 
BETWEEN 55W AND 80W OUTSIDE BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN NE AND E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 36.5N 62.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...140 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 130 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM NE AND 135 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. 
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL GONZALO NEAR 46.5N 50.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL GONZALO NEAR 52.0N
29.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.                                       

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 26N35W TO 26N40W THEN STATIONARY TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 25N47W 1012 MB TO 21N55W. ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 16N47W 
1009 MB MOVING NW AT 5 KT. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300 NM E QUADRANT 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 13N E OF 55W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT 24N35W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
29N47W 1010 MB. N OF 12N E OF 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT 
PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.

.GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 24N81W TO 22N90W 
THEN STATIONARY TO 18.5N93W. S OF 20N E OF 95W N TO NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 24N91W TO 21N90W THEN 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 18.5N93W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.