000
FZNT02 KNHC 151545
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 23.5N 68.0W 949 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 15
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT
GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SE QUADRANT AND 135 NM SW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 37 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM 
N SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 26.3N 68.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 40 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 20N TO 
31N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 31.6N 66.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 160 NM SE
QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 
NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 37 FT. 
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 21N W OF 60W 
OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GONZALO NEAR 40.6N 60.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL GONZALO NEAR 50.5N
46.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL GONZALO NEAR
54.0N 24.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.                                       

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N35W TO 28N37W TO 26N53W. N OF 27N E OF 
47W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT IN NW TO N 
SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF 62W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N35W TO 25N47W. N OF 
24N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 12 TO 13 FT IN N SWELL. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 16N E OF 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT 
PRIMARILY IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 11N E OF 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.

.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 17N45W 1009 MB MOVING N AT 5 KT. WITHIN 
210 NM E QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. SCATTERED 
TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 17N46W 1009 MB. CONDITIONS 
MERGE WITH ATLC SECTION ABOVE.

.CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM 30N83W TO 25N86W TO 18N93W. S OF 19.5N BETWEEN 
94.5W AND 96W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE S OF 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM 28N82W TO 22N87W. S OF 21N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT SE OF AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 
95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.