000
FZNT02 KNHC 031605
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1630 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 05.
 
.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 22.2N 87.9W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 03 
MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 10 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS
65 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...50
NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 12 FT.  ELSEWHERE
S OF 23N FROM 83W TO 87W  WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 25.4N 89.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 GUSTS 75 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND
30 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E AND 30
NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.  ELSEWHERE S OF 23N FROM
85W TO 88W  SE TO S WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  OVER
CARIBBEAN WATERS  N OF 21N W OF 85W  S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 28.2N 89.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 GUSTS 75 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.  ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES  WINDS TO 33 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM KAREN INLAND NEAR 31.0N 87.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL KAREN NEAR 35.0N 
81.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY AT 31.0N 40.2W 1010 MB AT 1500 UTC 
OCT 03 MOVING NE OR 050 DEG AT 10 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30
GUSTS 40 KT.  OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.  SEAS TO 11 FT.  WITHIN 30 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 8 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY NEAR 32.9N 35.7W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 35.2N 
31.0W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 38.5N 
27.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W  NE TO E WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.