000
FZNT02 KNHC 031321 AAA
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1030 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 05.
 
.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL AT 22.0N 87.6W 1004 MB AT 1300 UTC
OCT 03 MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEG AT 11 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
50 GUSTS 60 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS 12 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W
WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 11 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.4N 88.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND 60 GUSTS 75 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN
60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW
QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E AND 30NM W
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W  SE TO S WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.
OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS  FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W 
S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST  HURRICANE NEAR 25.4N 88.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND 65 GUSTS 80 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 80 NM NE
...60 NM SE AND NW AND 30 SW QUADRANTS.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 120 NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W  SE TO S WINDS TO
33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM SPECIAL NEAR 28.3N 88.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 GUSTS 75 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW
QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM E AND 60 NM W
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND
90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  
.72 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM SPECIAL INLAND NEAR 31.0N
87.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SPECIAL NEAR 34.5N
83.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL SPECIAL NEAR
38.5N 77.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY NEAR 30.2N 41.4W 1010 MB AT 1500 UTC 
OCT 03 MOVING NE OR 050 DEG AT 8 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 
GUSTS 40 KT.  OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.  SEAS TO 11 FT.  WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 8 FT.  NE OF LINE FROM 31N38W TO
29N35W  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY NEAR 32.4N 37.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.  SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 34.4N 
32.0W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.  SEAS LESS THAN 
12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 37.5N 
28.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W  NE TO E WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.