000
FZNT02 KNHC 272136
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC THU SEP 27 2007
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 27
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI SEP 28
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT SEP 29

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LORENZO NEAR 20.4N 95.9W 999 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 
27 MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER WITH HIGHEST SEAS 22 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 20.4N 96.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH HIGHEST SEAS 24 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO INLAND NEAR 20.5N 
97.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT 
WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.
48 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 14.3N 48.5W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 
27 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE...140 
NM SE...40 NM SW...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 170 NM NE...80 NM SE...60 NM SW...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS 
WITH HIGHEST SEAS 22 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 16.8N 51.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NE...70 NM SE...30 NM SW...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANTS. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES 
WITH HIGHEST SEAS 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 18.7N 54.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM 
NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 20.5N 55.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 22.5N 56.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 24.0N 58.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 
240 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 
NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS 
TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.

.ATLC TROUGH 31N78W TO LOW 28N79W 1012 MB TO 23N81W. N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 65W AND 77W S WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS N OF AREA.

.ATLC 48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N75W 29N81W. NW OF FRONT NE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT AS NOTED IN LORENZO WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 22N W OF 96W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH