000 FZNT02 KNHC 271916 AAA HSFAT2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1630 UTC THU SEP 27 2007 UPDATED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL STORM LORENZO SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SECURITE ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 27 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 28 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 29 .WARNINGS. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 13.7N 47.3W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 27 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 170 NM NE QUADRANT...140 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 170 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 16.0N 50.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 25 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 18.0N 53.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 24 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 19.5N 55.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 21.0N 57.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 23.0N 58.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM LORENZO SPECIAL NEAR 20.5N 95.5W 1004 MB AT 1800 UTC SEP 27 MOVING WSW OR 250 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO XX FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SPECIAL NEAR 20.3N 96.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...AND 30 NM S SEMICIRLCE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 20 FT. .36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION SPECIAL INLAND NEAR 20.5N 97.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. .48 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW SPECIAL NEAR 21.0N 99.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT. .72 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .ATLC...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS WITHIN 360 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS WITHIN 420 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .ATLC TROUGH 31N78W TO LOW 28N79W 1013 MB TO 24N81W. WITHIN 150 NM E OF TROUGH SE WIND TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS NE OF AREA. .CARIBBEAN FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W NE TO E WIND TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN LORENZO WARNINGS S OF 24N W OF 90W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN LORENZO WARNINGS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN LORENZO WARNINGS S OF 22N W OF 95W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH