NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER PASCH
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