NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 900 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE- DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FROM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BEVEN
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