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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR 
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER 
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT 
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED
BY TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS 
AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN

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