NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 1. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE... LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS... CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN
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