NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY... IF NECESSARY. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BEVEN
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