NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...HAS MOVED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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