NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
NHC Graphical Outlook Archive (Text)
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. 2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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