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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. 

2. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

4. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.  WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN


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