ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MADELINE HAS MOVED TOWARD 075/6 KT. NONE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FORECAST THIS MOTION. REGARDLESS..IF THE MOTION PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE COAST. THEREFORE...A REVISION OF THE WARNINGS HAS BEEN MADE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE LONGER TERM PROJECTIONS FOR MADELINE TO BE CARRIED TOWARD THE NORTH OR NE BY THE NEXT TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. EVEN SO...MADELINE IS DEVELOPING WHAT COULD BE AN EYE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PUT THE CYCLONE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. MORE DETAILS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS ALOFT STILL SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A CONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO... AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.9N 107.1W 60 KTS 12HR VT 18/0000Z 20.2N 106.6W 70 KTS 24HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W 75 KTS 36HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 106.1W 75 KTS 48HR VT 19/1200Z 23.1N 106.3W 70 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 106.5W 30 KTS...INLAND NNNN