ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998 DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE MAKES MADELINE A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF MADELINE AND ITS RATHER LARGE CENTER...FIXES HAVE MADE IT APPEAR THAT THE CENTER WAS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH/360/04 KNOTS. THE AVN STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND SWEEPING MADELINE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE AVN-BASED TRACK MODELS AND NHC FORECAST ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THAT AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST TRACK BUT SLIGHTLY EAST. THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A CONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.8N 108.0W 55 KTS 12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.3N 108.0W 60 KTS 24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.7N 107.9W 65 KTS 36HR VT 18/1200Z 23.5N 107.6W 70 KTS 48HR VT 19/0000Z 25.1N 107.0W 35 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 20/0000Z 28.1N 105.2W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN