ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 1998 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. TAFB NOTES A FOUR TENTHS BANDING FEATURE ON THE BD CURVE AND HAS A T NUMBER OF 2.5. SAB IS STILL GIVING A T NUMBER OF 2.0 AT 2100 AND OOOO UTC SEVERAL SHIPS PASSING ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 25 TO 33 KNOTS OF WIND. BASED ON THIS WE ARE UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM FRANK WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND THAN DECREASE AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FRANK IS MOVING ABOUT 360/07. THIS INITIAL MOTION AND OUR TRACK FORECAST WILL BRING THE STORM APPROXIMATELY PARALLEL TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER BAJA. THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY BE CHANGED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. MOST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE NAVY NOGAPS AND LBAR MODEL TRACKS DO PARALLEL THE COASTLINE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE NAVY NOGAPS TRACK FORECAST. RAINFALL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD INDUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.6N 112.0W 35 KTS 12HR VT 08/1200Z 22.5N 112.7W 40 KTS 24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.7N 113.3W 40 KTS 36HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 113.9W 35 KTS 48HR VT 10/0000Z 26.2N 114.7W 30 KTS 72HR VT 11/0000Z 28.3N 116.6W 25 KTS NNNN