ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 1998 THE CDO HAS EXPANDED THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A HINT OF POSSIBLE WARM SPOT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DMSP SSM/I SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.5...77 KNOTS. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING BY 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KNOTS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CLOSELY CLUSTERED ALONG A GENERAL WEST TO WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVIATION MODEL FORECAST FOR THE E-W ORIENTED HIGH TO THE NORTH TO REMAIN THE CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH 72 HOURS. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 16.0N 112.6W 75 KTS 12HR VT 01/1800Z 16.4N 114.5W 85 KTS 24HR VT 02/0600Z 17.1N 116.9W 90 KTS 36HR VT 02/1800Z 17.9N 119.6W 85 KTS 48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W 65 KTS 72HR VT 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W 55 KTS NNNN