ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 1998 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CELIA HAS NOT INCREASED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RADAR DATA FROM THE CUYUTLAN MEXICO SHOWS THE CENTER IS RATHER BROAD AND NOT WELL- DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST/S. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER CELIA ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A MORE WESTERLY HEADING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT. GUINEY/RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.2N 107.8W 40 KTS 12HR VT 18/0600Z 20.1N 109.0W 45 KTS 24HR VT 18/1800Z 21.1N 111.2W 50 KTS 36HR VT 19/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W 40 KTS 48HR VT 19/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W 30 KTS 72HR VT 20/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W 30 KTS NNNN