ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 1998 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE MAIN FEATURE IS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO BE A STORM. HOWEVER...SINCE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. VISIBLE PICTURES LATER TODAY MAY INDICATE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE SHARP GRADIENT OF SST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS SO STRENGTHENING...IF OCCURS...HAS TO BE SOON. BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 290/16 AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.1N 109.8W 30 KTS 12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 35 KTS 24HR VT 21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W 35 KTS 36HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 30 KTS 48HR VT 22/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 30 KTS 72HR VT 23/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W 25 KTS NNNN