ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT NOV 28 1998 TENACIOUS NICOLE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN WITH BANDING FEATURES AND THE CENTER LOCATED UNDER THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 50 KNOTS. THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF NICOLE IS VERY UNCERTAIN. HIGH RESOLUTION HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WIND VECTORS DEPICT A RIDGE OVER NICOLE WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND 200 MB FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REACH THE AREA OF THE STORM SOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RAPID WEAKENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...BOTH SHIFOR AND THE GFDL BRING NICOLE TO HURRICANE STATUS. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INITIALLY INDICATED... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING. NICOLE IS NOW MOVING 290/10. THERE IS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE BEST ESTIMATE GIVEN SUCH PATTERN WOULD BE TO FORECAST RECURVATURE. LATEST GFDL...AVN AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BYPASS NICOLE AND THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOTION. THE RECURVATURE OPTION IS PREFERRED... A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 26.5N 46.0W 50 KTS 12HR VT 28/1800Z 27.2N 47.0W 50 KTS 24HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 47.5W 55 KTS 36HR VT 29/1800Z 29.0N 47.5W 60 KTS 48HR VT 30/0600Z 30.5N 47.0W 55 KTS 72HR VT 01/0600Z 33.5N 43.0W 50 KTS NNNN