ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI NOV 27 1998 ALTHOUGH NICOLES CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER HAS MOVED UNDER THE CONVECTION AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS FORMING AN ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUAD. SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE PRESENT. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW AT 40 KNOTS. THUS...NICOLE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 21Z. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTHENING AT LEAST OUT TO 36 HOURS. SINCE NICOLE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MAXIMUM LATITUDE OF RECURVATURE NEAR 36 HOURS IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD MAKE HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TO BEGIN A GRADUAL RECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THESE TRACKS AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 25.7N 43.2W 40 KTS 12HR VT 28/0600Z 26.2N 44.6W 50 KTS 24HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 45.8W 60 KTS 36HR VT 29/0600Z 29.0N 46.0W 65 KTS 48HR VT 29/1800Z 30.7N 45.6W 65 KTS 72HR VT 30/1800Z 33.0N 43.0W 55 KTS NNNN