ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN NOV 01 1998 IR SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVING 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THIS SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE SYSTEM RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND WHAT IS LEFT IS LOCATED ON PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MITCH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK THAT BENDS TO THE WNW AND THEN NW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN AND WOULD KEEP MITCH OVER LAND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING AND MOVES SYSTEM INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE IN TWO DAYS. FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS MODELS DIFFER IN DIRECTION AND SPEEDS. TWO NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 18 HOURS...AND NOGAPS WHICH MOVES SYSTEM TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA IN 36 HOURS AND BACK INTO CARIBBEAN. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 15.0N 91.4W 30 KTS...INLAND 12HR VT 01/1800Z 15.6N 92.5W 30 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0600Z 16.4N 93.5W 30 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1800Z 17.4N 93.9W 30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.3N 93.8W 30 KTS 72HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 93.0W 30 KTS NNNN