ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED OCT 28 1998 MITCH HAS DRIFTED TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... AND THIS RUN OF THE BAM SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR TWO WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF MITCH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MUCH OF THE REMAINING 12Z GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE NW MOVES EAST OF MITCH/S LONGITUDE. THE NOGAPS SHOWS THIS OCCURRING IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE GFDL HAS A SIMILAR BUT DELAYED PATTERN EVOLUTION...WHILE THE AVN IS A LITTLE SLOWER YET. AS A RESULT...THE NOGAPS ENDS UP IN 72 HOURS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE THE AVN IS NEAR THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE TWO...AND VERY NEAR OUR PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT GFDL. THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE NOW UP TO 960 MB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY WEAKENED FROM A COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH LAND...UPWELLED COOLER WATERS...AND A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INFERRED FROM THE DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA NOTED THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL BE SHOWN UNTIL THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE. STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR THREAT...PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.4N 85.9W 100 KTS 12HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 86.2W 90 KTS 24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.0N 86.7W 85 KTS 36HR VT 30/0600Z 17.5N 87.2W 85 KTS 48HR VT 30/1800Z 18.3N 87.5W 90 KTS 72HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 87.5W 75 KTS...INLAND NNNN