ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 08 1998 THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS ANALYSTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 48 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/22. THE FUTURE MOTION OF LISA WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL GO RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THIS LOW AS INDICATED ON THE UKMET MODEL... OR SLOW DOWN AND MOVE AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 500 MB LOW...OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. FOR NOW WE MAINTAIN THE SEPARATE IDENTITY OF LISA AND NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD INDICATE A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 MB LOW. THIS IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. OUR 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE NOGAPS RUN AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 25.5N 41.0W 50 KTS 12HR VT 08/1800Z 28.0N 39.2W 50 KTS 24HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 38.0W 50 KTS 36HR VT 09/1800Z 37.0N 39.0W 50 KTS 48HR VT 10/0600Z 40.0N 40.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0600Z 43.0N 43.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN