ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 07 1998 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW- LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 35 KNOTS AT KGWC...45 KNOTS AT SAB...AND 55 KNOTS AT TAFB. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES NO STRENGTHENING...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIFOR AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. ONLY THE GFDL SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION...WHICH IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IF THE SHEAR DIMINISHES TEMPORARILY AS LISA MOVES AWAY FROM THE COLD LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. BY 72 HOURS LISA IS EXPECTED TO BE COMBINING WITH A FRONTAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. GLOBAL MODELS PRODUCE A CUT-OFF LOW WITHIN THE LARGE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. LISA SHOULD BE STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NAVY NOGAPS...GFDL...AVIATION...AND DEEP LAYER BAM MODELS. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.8N 47.5W 45 KTS 12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.3N 46.2W 45 KTS 24HR VT 08/0600Z 24.0N 44.0W 45 KTS 36HR VT 08/1800Z 27.5N 42.0W 45 KTS 48HR VT 09/0600Z 32.0N 41.0W 45 KTS 72HR VT 10/0600Z 40.0N 45.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN