ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998 RECON FOUND 56 KNOTS AND FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND A SHIP...XCMG...REPORTED 33 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. A PLATFORM...S58...REPORTED 40-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT AN ELEVATION OF 120 FEET. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 40 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL EVIDENT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. FIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND AND THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 020/8. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THE TROPICAL STORM INLAND OVER THE WARNING AREA. OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...ASIDE FROM THE UK MET AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH KEEP HERMINE OVER WATER...MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 27.9N 90.7W 40 KTS 12HR VT 20/0000Z 28.7N 90.4W 45 KTS 24HR VT 20/1200Z 30.0N 89.8W 35 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0000Z 31.5N 89.0W 30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 21/1200Z 32.0N 88.0W 25 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 22/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W 20 KTS...INLAND NNNN