ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE A 60-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND...A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN IS FORECAST. RADAR SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT...SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH..3 KNOTS OR SO. THE LATEST AVN MODEL RUN SUGGESTS ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ALLOW GEORGES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NOGAPS SHOWS LITTLE MOTION. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL HAS GEORGES LINGERING ABOUT OVER ALABAMA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. GUIDANCE SUCH AS LBAR AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL MOVE GEORGES MUCH FARTHER TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM GEORGES IS SHIFTING TO THAT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE LOCAL STORMS. OBVIOUSLY...THE MAGNITUDE OF FRESHWATER FLOODING DEPENDS ON HOW SLOWLY THE SYSTEM MOVES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH GEORGES HAS BEEN INLAND SINCE THIS MORNING...BECAUSE OF ITS SIZE AND SLOW MOVEMENT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY STILL OCCURRING OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE. THEREFORE THE HURRICANE WARNING IS BEING CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING EFFECTIVE AT 21Z. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KTS 12HR VT 29/0600Z 31.1N 88.7W 50 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 29/1800Z 31.7N 88.4W 40 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 30/0600Z 32.0N 87.7W 30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 30/1800Z 32.3N 87.0W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 01/1800Z 32.5N 85.5W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN