ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998 FOR THE VULNERABLE AREAS IN THE WARNED ZONE...PARTICULARLY AROUND NEW ORLEANS AND ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...GEORGES IS POSING AN INCREASING AND UNUSUALLY SEVERE FLOOD THREAT FROM A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE. MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW GEORGES SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. THE GFDL RUN FROM 12Z IS NOW AVAILABLE AND IT IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO OUR PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHER GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SOMEWHAT ALONG THAT TRACK AS WELL..SO NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK. A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN IS AGAIN EXPECTED AS GEORGES TEMPORARILY BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME BETWEEN THE HIGH TO BE CENTERED TO THE SE OVER FLORIDA...AND ANOTHER HIGH DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF GEORGES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE EAST COAST. THE EYE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW HAVING REACHED 5.5...OR 102 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND A 968 MB PRESSURE AND 92 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...BUT AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SHOWED 95 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE MOST RECENT HRD ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 70 KT. THESE DATA SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN DETERMINING THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. THE CURRENT NHC ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...UPPER END OF CATEGORY 2. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 26.6N 86.2W 95 KTS 12HR VT 27/0600Z 27.1N 87.2W 95 KTS 24HR VT 27/1800Z 28.1N 88.5W 100 KTS 36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.9N 89.3W 100 KTS 48HR VT 28/1800Z 29.7N 89.7W 100 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 90.0W 65 KTS...INLAND NNNN