ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998 IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER USING SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT IT IS STILL INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM GUANTANAMO NAVY BASE ARE CONSISTENT WITH OUR ESTIMATED POSITION. THE NOAA PLANE CANNOT LOCATE THE CENTER WHILE IT IS OVER LAND. HOWEVER...WE ARE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER MAY EMERGE ON THE NORTH COAST AT ANY TIME...AND IF IT DOES...THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCATE IT. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...295/10. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS ARE A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF YUCATAN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OVERALL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THIS PRECISE TRACK BECAUSE HISTORICALLY ERRORS OF 100 TO 150 MILES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 24 AND 36 HOURS POSITIONS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD A THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS IMPLIED. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GEORGES. ON THE LARGER-SCALE...GEORGES LOOKS IMPRESSIVE WITH HEALTHY CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND A PICTURESQUE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE INNER-CORE FEATURES REMAIN DIFFUSE... LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. ASIDE FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAND...METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING. GEORGES IS PREDICTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 2 STATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT COULD DO SO SOONER...AND GEORGES COULD GET STRONGER THAN WE HAVE SHOWN HERE. WE NEED TO BE COGNIZANT OF THE LIMITATIONS IN INTENSITY FORECASTING. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 20.6N 75.7W 65 KTS 12HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 77.0W 65 KTS 24HR VT 25/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W 70 KTS 36HR VT 25/1200Z 24.6N 80.8W 80 KTS 48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W 85 KTS 72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.5W 90 KTS NNNN