ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 17 1998 A SEQUENCE OF SSMI IMAGES DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS...COURTESY OF NRL MONTEREY HOMEPAGE...INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF GEORGES IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THESE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THERE IS ALMOST A CLOSED EYEWALL. THIS COINCIDES WITH EARLIER VISIBLE METEOSAT IMAGES THAT SUGGESTED AN EYE WAS TRYING TO FORM BUT CONVECTION DOES NOT SUPPORT SUCH FEATURE. IN FACT...THE APPARENT EYE IS NO LONGER CLEARLY OBSERVED AND T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ALL OF THE ABOVE JUSTIFIES THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A 200 MB HIGH WITH EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS GEORGES TO 86 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS AND THE GFDL ALSO STRENGTHENS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS BRINGING GEORGES TO 85 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE EYE DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY...GEORGES MAY BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MOTION SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY GFDL...LBAR AND UK MODELS. NOTE: 5-DAY GFDL AND LBAR BRING GEORGES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN SUCH LONG RANGE FORECASTS. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.2N 39.2W 50 KTS 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.3N 41.9W 60 KTS 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.7N 44.9W 65 KTS 36HR VT 19/0000Z 13.2N 48.1W 75 KTS 48HR VT 19/1200Z 14.0N 51.5W 75 KTS 72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 58.0W 85 KTS NNNN