ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 1998 THE SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME ELONGATED...AS THE SATELLITE AND RADAR CENTERS ARE WELL WEST OF WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM VICTORIA TEXAS WOULD PLACE THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRANCES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE END OF A LARGE SCALE AND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE. PERHAPS FRANCES IS EVOLVING INTO A WAVE ON A FRONT. THIS COULD KEEP THE CIRCULATION VIGOROUS FOR SOME TIME LONGER...AND KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INLAND FOR LONGER. THE SABINE C-MAN REPORTED 41 KNOTS AT 12Z AND 31 KNOTS AT 13Z AND 35 KNOTS AT 14Z. THE WIND IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR 15Z...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE FRANCES TO A DEPRESSION AT 18Z AND TAKE DOWN THE COASTAL WARNINGS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWED TO 300/07 BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 48 HOURS. THE AVIATION MODEL AND UKMET AND LBAR SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR 48 HOURS AND THEN ADDS THE NORTHWARD MOTION. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 28.6N 97.7W 35 KTS...INLAND 12HR VT 12/0000Z 29.2N 98.7W 30 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.9N 99.8W 25 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 13/0000Z 30.5N 100.5W 25 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 13/1200Z 31.4N 101.2W 25 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.0N 101.0W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN