ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998 THE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL (5 KFT) WIND OF 57 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE NWS CORPUS CHRISTI (KCRP) WSR-88D HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 60 AND 65 KNOTS AT 3500 TO 4500 FT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE IS 1003 MB. THE ROCKPORT ASOS SITE AT 08Z REPORTED 36 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WITH A GUST TO 42 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS DATA... THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE ADJUSTED UP TO 50 KNOTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE NWS OFFICES ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL REDUCED ON THE EAST SIDE...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SABINE PASS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT STATEMENT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY ME MADE LATER THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY CHARLEY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RADAR 3-HOURLY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM KCRP ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3.5 INCHES BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND VICTORIA TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS CHARLEY MOVES INLAND. THE LATEST RADAR POSITIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST AIRCRAFT CENTER FIX. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09 KNOTS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHARLEY ON THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS THE SYSTEM TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH LBAR. THIS TRACK REPRESENTS A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THANKS TO KBRO...KCRP...KHOU...KLCH...AND KLIX FOR YOUR INPUT. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 27.8N 96.8W 50 KTS 12HR VT 22/1800Z 28.6N 98.0W 35 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 23/0600Z 29.1N 99.8W 30 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 23/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 24/0600Z 30.0N 103.5W...INLAND...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN